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Capital Improvement Plan, 2003-2009VI. Membership Projections Summary: 2002-03 to 2007-08Return to Table of Contents Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions: The principal methodology used in forecasting is known as the cohort-survival technique. The basic technique involves calculating the ratio of the number of students in one grade during one year compared to the number of students who "survive" the year and enroll in the next grade in the following year. This survival rate calculation treats the student body in an aggregate fashion, using historical membership data. It is affected by such factors as school promotion, net migration and withdrawal rates. All of these factors are included in the term "survival" as it is used in this context. Fluctuations in the data from year to year create a pattern from which an average survival rate can be calculated to project future student membership. For example, if over a period of several years, an average of 96 percent of the student membership in grade 3 goes on to grade 4, and if 300 children are now enrolled in grade 3, then next year's grade 4 membership may be estimated at 96 percent of 300 or 288 students. Twelve average rates of survival are calculated for a system with thirteen grades (kindergarten is considered to be a grade). These rates can then be applied to present student membership and used to project membership levels for each succeeding year. Thus, if the average survival rate from grade 4 (with its 288 students) to grade 5 is 1.10, then for the second projected year the estimate for grade 5 is 1.10 of 288 or 317 students. Projecting future kindergarten membership is more complex. Grade to grade cohort survival cannot be used, since there is no preceding grade for kindergarten. Therefore, information such as estimates of the number of children in the 1-5 year old population cohorts, the number of live births five years previously, and recent trends in kindergarten are utilized. This year's forecast for kindergarten enrollment was derived from the State of Alaska age cohort population projections by the Alaska Department of Labor. Singular age population projections for Anchorage were then extrapolated from the state projections. These projections were used to determine kindergarten enrollment for the next six years. This was done by using a weighted index of the average ratio of ASD kindergarten enrollment to the 5-year-old Anchorage population and applying it to the singular age projections. Indicators of housing and development trends were then incorporated into these projections. Projections for individual schools are derived using the benchmark numbers realized through the cohort-survival and kindergarten projection methods. The allocation of students to each school is done by examining historical trends in individual school membership, as well as historical and projected housing and economic trends for that area. A good population forecast should be driven by assumptions. If the assumptions behind the forecast are considered reasonable and the methodology employed is professionally acceptable, the forecast will represent a credible attempt to estimate future School District membership levels for planning purposes. The assumptions, which were employed in developing the 2003-04 to 2008–09 membership forecasts, are described in the following paragraphs. The ASD projections contained in this document do not reflect the impact of any major events occurring in the next six years: construction of the natural gas pipeline, opening of ANWR for oil exploration, closure of military installations; major changes in the state’s economic or political structure. It is assumed, however, that oil and mineral exploration will continue in Alaska throughout the decade, perhaps at a more rapid pace than in recent years. However, due to decreasing oil production and fluctuating oil prices in the state, this exploration may not have a dramatic overall impact on the state’s finances and consequently its population. It is also assumed that the air cargo industry in Anchorage will continue to develop and that employment levels in these industries will affect the School District population. Economic and housing data are utilized in the formulation of long-range student membership projections. The Municipality of Anchorage's Population Estimate Surveys, as well as information supplied by the State Demographer have been utilized in formulating the six-year student membership projections. The projection series presented in this document reflects a continuing stabilization of the Anchorage economy. Demographic changes indicate a leveling off or reduction of ASD enrollment over the next six years. While a very young age structure sustained growth in the elementary grades during the late 80’s and has resulted in growth through the 90’s in the secondary grades, a maturing age composition will drive a decline in the elementary population over the next six years. This trend is already evident in recent kindergarten enrollments. From 1993 to 1998, the average kindergarten enrollment averaged over 3,900. From 1998 to 2002, kindergarten enrollment has averaged 3,600, or 300 less. This decline in kindergarten enrollment has lowered the growth rate of the District's elementary population and will give rise to a decline in the elementary membership over the next six years. The decline in kindergarten enrollment, as well as the low elementary growth rate, is a result of shifting demographics in the Anchorage area. U.S. Census data indicate that from 1990 to 2000, the population of the child-rearing age cohort (20-34 year olds) declined by 13 percent. The population of the 0 - 4 age group declined by nearly 2,000 children, or 9%. The median age in Anchorage increased from 29.6 in 1990 to 32.4 in 2000. Additionally, the Municipality of Anchorage’s Anchorage Indicators: 2000 shows that from 1990 until 1999, the military and dependent population decreased by 16 percent. U.S. Census data also indicate that from 1990 to 2000, the 10-14 and 15-19 age groups grew by 32% and 28%, respectively. This growth can be seen in our secondary enrollment, which is projected to continue to increase over the next 2-3 years, peaking in 2005 or 2006. From that time on, secondary enrollment is projected to decline slowly, as a result of the smaller classes coming from the elementary schools. Table 13 shows the Districtwide membership projections for the next six years by grade. This table reflects a very stable membership level over these years, with a slight decline projected for years starting in 2004. This decline comes mostly in the elementary grades, and later from the middle schools, as discussed above. Table 14 shows the elementary projections for each geographic area. These projections follow the same structure as former years, in terms of the elementary schools assigned to each area. However, rather than calling the areas “High School Attendance Area”, this report labels them by geographic region. Prior reports have created some confusion, because of the terminology it appeared that all students from a particular elementary school would be going to a single high school. Some split boundaries do not allow for a one-toone match from feeder schools. Since it is still useful to look at what has happened (Table 8) and what will be happening to enrollments in various parts of the District, Table 14 is maintained in this report by geographic region. Table 15 summarizes the projections for each elementary school, and includes the EED Capacity and actual enrollment for September 30, 2002. EED capacities are lower for all schools than in prior reports, due to a change in EED regulations in December 2002. This regulation change increased the square foot allowance for each student, which lowers the EED capacity of each facility. It should be noted that in Table 15, as well as other tables throughout this document, the September 30, 2002 membership for Chester Valley is shown as 256 and for Ptarmigan as 421. These totals assume that the 54 Ptarmigan kindergarten students housed at Chester Valley (due to crowding at Ptarmigan) should be counted as Ptarmigan students and not included in the Chester Valley membership. Tables 16 and 17 provide the same information for middle school and high school memberships, respectively. Tables 18 and 19 summarize this information for the secondary district-wide schools, charter schools, alternative schools, and special services programs.
Tables
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Anchorage School District 5530 E Northern Lights Blvd Anchorage, Alaska 99504-3135 907-742-4000 |