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Capital Improvement Plan, 2003-2009 V. Historical Population Growth Factors And Administrative Policies Affecting School Enrollment Return to Table of Contents Residential Births in Anchorage: While the number of births in Anchorage has not always proven to be a reliable predictor of kindergarten membership, the information does provide an indication of future long-range trends. The movement of families in and out of the municipality, as well as the number of births per household, affects the value of this data. Table 4 presents data on residential births occurring in Anchorage since 1976. This table reflects a declining birthrate in Anchorage since 1998, though 2002 statistics indicate a leveling off of the birthrate. School-Age Children in Total Population: Historically, school membership levels in Anchorage have reflected the city's population growth. Since 1992 the population in Anchorage has increased slowly but steadily, with an increase of approximately 8 percent over this past 11-year period. During this same period of time, school membership has also increased approximately 8 percent. The school membership has consistently been approximately 19 percent of the Anchorage population. However, it is important to note that both the addition of mandated and community-desired school programs, as well as major shifts in the residential location of the student population, have substantially affected space requirements in many District facilities. Table 5 lists Anchorage population and school membership for the years 1992 – 2002, as well as military students on base and off base for the same period. Monthly Public School Membership: School membership typically declines from the fall to the spring at the secondary levels, whereas elementary membership remains quite constant. Table 6 summarizes end-of-the-month school membership from 1971 to 2002. Grade Level Membership: Analyzing the historical grade level membership in Table 7 indicates certain trends in school membership. For example, the kindergarten membership has declined steadily since 1997, with the exception that the 2002 enrollment showed a small increase over 2001. This trend tends to have a ripple effect throughout the higher grades. The first grade membership has declined since 1998, and the second grade membership has declined since 1999. While there are other factors affecting future school membership, this factor, along with declining birth rates, points toward smaller upper level grade memberships in future years. In this year’s CIP, 4 additional tables have been included: 7a-7d. These provide details of the summary in Table 7, by school and by grade within each school. High School Attendance Area Membership: Tables 8 and 9 present historical elementary and secondary membership broken down by geographic area. In prior years these tables have referenced high school attendance areas. The tables in this report are based on the same groupings of feeder schools as prior years, to allow historical comparison. However, since there is not a oneto- one relationship between feeder schools and next higher level of schools, it is more appropriate to refer to geographic areas, rather than high school attendance areas. This information provides basic data for analyzing shifts in student population. For example, the Northeast area has had an increase of approximately 900 elementary students from 1993 to 2002, while the East area has shown a decrease of approximately 450 during that same time period. Table 10 provides information on ASD special services programs membership. Non-Public School Membership: Data on private school membership have historically been collected by the District. Table 11 summarizes this data for the years 1993 to 2002. Table 12 lists the individual schools and their 2002- 2003 memberships. Attendance Zones and Boundary Exceptions: School Board policies and procedures permit students to attend a school or program outside their regular attendance area, provided classroom space is available. When there are no openings for a school or program, a lottery is conducted and a waiting list is developed. Students on the waiting list are admitted in sequence as openings occur. Transfer requests are to be monitored to ensure that such transfers do not result in crowding of facilities or racially isolated school populations. Boundary Adjustments: Changes to attendance boundaries are normally required as a result of opening a new school or shifts in student population. The factors listed below serve as a guide for boundary adjustment recommendations: The maintenance of the area or neighborhood school concept where feasible. Non-contiguous boundaries are contrary to School Board policy and District planning objectives. The transportation of students. Any redistricting should attempt to minimize travel time for students and overall transportation costs. The development of a "feeder" school network in which elementary school boundaries do not overlap those of middle schools and senior high schools; and middle school boundaries do not overlap those of senior high schools. The retention of a reasonably balanced racial ethnic membership in all schools. The relationship of boundary adjustments to historical student assignment changes. Efforts are made to avoid reassignment of students who have been affected by an earlier boundary change. The maintenance of a commitment to long-range planning decisions   Tables Table 4: Anchorage Area Births 1976-2002 Table 5: Anchorage Population and Student Membership: 1992-2002 Table 6: End-of-Month Membership Summary: 1971-2003 2002-03 through 1995-96 1994-95 through 1987-88 1986-87 through 1979-80 1978-79 through 1972-73 Table 7: Historical Membership by Grade Table 7a: Historical Elementary Membership by Grade Abbott Loop, Airport Heights, Alpenglow, Aquarian Charter, Aurora Baxter, Bayshore, Bear Valley, Birchwood ABC, Bowman, Willard Campbell, Chester Valley, Chinook, Chugach Optional, Chugiak Elementary College Gate, Creekside Park, Denali, Eagle River, Fairview Family Partnership Charter K-6, Fire Lake, Girdwood K-8, Government Hill, Homestead Huffman, Inlet View, Kasuun, Kennedy, Kincaid Klatt, Lake Hood, Lake Otis, Mount Spurr, Mt. View Muldoon, North Star, Northern Lights ABC, Northwood, Nunaka Valley Ocean View, O'Malley, Orion, Polaris K-6, Ptarmigan Rabbit Creek, Ravenwood, Rogers Park, Russian Jack, Sand Lake Scenic Park, Spring Hill, Susitna, Taku, Trailside Tudor, Turnagain, Tyson, William, Ursa Major, Ursa Minor Village Charter K-8, Williwaw, Willow Crest, Wonder Park, Wood, Gladys, Grand total Table 7b: Historical Middle School Membership by Grade Table 7c: Historical High School Membership by Grade Table 7d: Historical Other Secondary School Membership by Grade Table 8: Elementary Membership by Geographic Area: 1993-2002 Table 9: Secondary Membership by High School Attendance Area: 1993-2002 Table 10: Special Services/Pre-Elementary Membership 1993-2002 Table 11: Private School Membership in Anchorage: 1993-2002 Table 12: Private School Enrollment: 2002-2003   Return to Table of Contents		Demographics Menu Demographics Home Capital Improvement Plans Ethnicity Report Find a school Membership Summary

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