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Capital Improvement Plan, 2007-2013VI. Membership Projections Summary: 2007-08 to 2012-13« Return to Table of ContentsForecasting Methodology and Assumptions: The principal methodology used in forecasting is known as the cohort-survival technique. The basic technique involves calculating the ratio of the number of students in one grade during one year compared to the number of students who "survive" the year and enroll in the next grade in the following year. This survival rate calculation treats the student body in an aggregate fashion, using historical membership data. It is affected by such factors as school promotion, net migration and withdrawal rates. All of these factors are included in the term "survival" as it is used in this context. Fluctuations in the data from year to year create a pattern from which an average survival rate can be calculated to project future student membership. For example, if over a period of several years an average of 96 percent of the student membership in grade 3 goes on to grade 4, and if 300 children are now enrolled in grade 3, then next year's grade 4 membership may be estimated at 96 percent of 300 or 288 students. Twelve average rates of survival are calculated for a system with thirteen grades (kindergarten is considered to be a grade). These rates can then be applied to present student membership and used to project membership levels for each succeeding year. Projecting future kindergarten membership is more complex. Grade to grade cohort survival cannot be used, since there is no preceding grade for kindergarten. Therefore, information such as estimates of the number of children in the 1-5 year old population cohorts, the number of live births five years previously, and recent trends in kindergarten are utilized. This year's forecast for kindergarten enrollment was derived from historical kindergarten enrollment and historical births (adjusted for school year). These projections were used to determine kindergarten enrollment for the next six years. Indicators of housing and development trends were then incorporated into these projections. Projections for individual schools are derived using the benchmark numbers realized through the cohort-survival and kindergarten projection methods. The allocation of students to each school is done by examining historical trends in individual school membership, as well as historical and projected housing and economic trends for that area. A good population forecast should be driven by assumptions. If the assumptions behind the forecast are considered reasonable and the methodology employed is professionally acceptable, the forecast will represent a credible attempt to estimate future School District membership levels for planning purposes. The assumptions, which were employed in developing the 2007-08 to 2012–13 membership forecasts, are described below. The ASD projections contained in this document do not reflect the impact of any major events occurring in the next six years: construction of the natural gas pipeline, opening of ANWR for oil exploration, closure of military installations; major changes in the state’s economic or political structure. It is assumed, however, that oil and mineral exploration will continue in Alaska throughout the decade, perhaps at a more rapid pace than in recent years. It is also assumed that the air cargo industry in Anchorage will continue to develop and that employment levels in these industries, as well as health and retail, will affect the School District membership. Economic, demographic, and housing data are utilized in the formulation of long-range student membership projections. Information supplied by the State Demographer, MOA Department of Public Works, State Department of Labor (AKDOL, and the State Bureau of Vital Statistics, has been utilized in formulating the six-year student membership projections. According to the AKDOL, the Anchorage economy has grown for the past 18 years, and projected to grow for an additional 2 years. With this growth in the economy, Anchorage residents have seen increased property valuation, increased housing supply, and low interest rates. However, home purchase has become less affordable for some and is one reason for out-migration to the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Although Anchorage is experiencing an outmigration to Mat-Su, there has been in-migration from rural Alaskan communities resulting in a net migration of nearly 2,000 residents over 2005 (AKDOL). These demographic and economic changes indicate a leveling off or slight reduction in ASD enrollment over the next six years. A very young age structure sustained growth in the elementary grades during the late 80’s and resulted in growth through the 90’s and 2000’s in the secondary grades. However, the early 2000’s saw a maturing age composition. Kindergarten enrollment leveled off around 3,500, a slight reduction from the 3,800 average of the late 1990’s. For the past 3 years, the average kindergarten enrollment increased to 3,700. This trend will result in a similar leveling in the elementary membership, with a slight increase starting in 2008. Middle level enrollment declined this year, indicating the last of the large kindergarten classes having passed through the middle levels. Middle level enrollment will continue to decline slightly for the next few years, and should begin to increase again around 2011. Senior level enrollment is expected to peak this year, as the large kindergarten classes pass through. It will decline slightly for the next several years, and is not expected to increase again until 2013.Anchorage has also seen a shift in its demographic composition. U.S. Census data indicate that from 1990 to 2000, the population of the child-rearing age cohort (20-34 year olds) declined by 13 percent. The population of the 0 - 4 age group declined by nearly 2,000 children, or 9%. The median age in Anchorage increased from 29.6 in 1990 to 32.4 in 2000. Birth data from the State Bureau of Vital Statistics indicate declining birth rates for the Anchorage area. While the number of births (adjusted for school year) in Anchorage declined from 1996 to 2006 by 49 births, the kindergarten enrollment increased by 181 students. Reasons for this difference may be the in-migration of students from rural communities, and the change in kindergarten enrollment policy in 2004. The military student population has decreased by 3.5% over the past 5 years. The military and dependent population was expected to increase on Fort Richardson to accommodate new troops to support the new Airborne Brigade. A net gain of 2,000 troops was expected by November 2005. However, the total number of military students declined in 2005 and 2006. U.S. Census data also indicate that from 1990 to 2000, the 10-14 and 15-19 age groups grew by 32% and 28%, respectively. This growth can be seen in our high school enrollment, which is projected to continue at high levels, over the next 2-3 years. Secondary enrollment is projected to decline slowly, as a result of the smaller classes coming from the elementary schools. Table 13 shows the Districtwide membership projections for the next six years by grade. This table reflects slight declines over the six-year period. This decline comes mostly in the middle schools, and later from the high schools, as discussed above. Table 14 shows the elementary projections for each geographic area. These projections follow the same structure as former years, in terms of the elementary schools assigned to each area. However, rather than calling the areas “High School Attendance Area”, this report labels them by geographic region. Prior reports have created some confusion, because of the terminology it appeared that all students from a particular elementary school would be going to a single high school. Some split boundaries do not allow for a one-to-one match from feeder schools. Since it is still useful to look at what has happened to enrollments (Table 8), and what is projected to happen to enrollments in various parts of the District, Table 14 is maintained in this report by geographic region. Table 15 summarizes the projections for each elementary school, and includes the Program Capacity and actual enrollment for September 29, 2006. Prior CIP documents have utilized EED capacities based on square foot allowance for each student as the basis for this capacity number. Program Capacity is based on classroom utilization and makes comparison of capacities between schools a more meaningful process. A summary of the Program and EED capacities is provided in the Appendix to this report. Tables 16 and 17 provide the same information for middle school and high school memberships, respectively. Tables 18 and 19 summarize this information for the secondary district-wide schools, charter schools, alternative schools, and special services programs. Tables
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